The dog days of summer sports are coming to an end. College Football is starting up this weekend. NFL starts in a few weeks. Basketball and Hockey are right around the corner. And, most importantly, the MLB playoffs are right around the corner.
Producing arguably some of the best playoff atmospheres in all of sports, playoff baseball is truly one of a kind. With a little over a month left in the regular season, there are still 29 teams with statistical chances of making the playoffs (sorry White Sox fans).
There are 4 divisions with multiple teams within 5 games of a division lead, and no team has clinched a playoff spot yet. September is going to be an interesting, and exciting, month for baseball. Let’s dive into each division and make some juicy predictions on where it will shake out come October.
AL East
Teams in Contention: Baltimore Orioles (73-52), New York Yankees (73-52) & Boston Red Sox (65-58, 7 GB)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- New York Yankees (-150)
- Baltimore Orioles (+130)
- Boston Red Sox (+13000)
Division Winner: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are getting the nod over the Yankees due to the Yankees’ inability to close out games. Clay Holmes has been atrocious as of late, leading the MLB in blown saves (10). The Yankees also have a worse home record (32-27) than road record (41-25), and therefore cannot be trusted to win a home series against Baltimore in September.
Impact Series
- 9/9-9/11: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
- 9/12-9/15: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
- 9/24-9/26: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
AL Central
Teams in Contention: Cleveland Guardians (72-52), Minnesota Twins (70-54, 2 GB) & Kansas City Royals (69-55, 3 GB)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- Cleveland Guardians (-150)
- Minnesota Twins (+175)
- Kansas City Royals (+600)
Division Winner: Minnesota Twins
The most interesting divisional race is the AL Central. Three teams within three games of each other. And three teams no one seems to be giving a realistic chance to win anything come October.
The Cleveland Guardians, under rookie manager Stephen Vogt, have far surpassed expectations this year. The Minnesota Twins, a year after winning their first playoff GAME since 2004, are in the hunt. And the Kansas City Royals have roared back onto the scene with their young superstar (Bobby Witt Jr.) and dominant pitching staff (Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer & Michael Wacha).
The tiebreaker, due to their experience, goes to the Twins for now but this division is up-for-grabs for any of these teams.
Impact Series
- 8/26-8/28: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
- 9/2-9/4: Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
- 9/6-9/8: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
- 9/16-9/18: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
AL West
Teams in Contention: Houston Astros (67-56) & Seattle Mariners (64-61, 4 GB)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- Houston Astros (-550)
- Seattle Mariners (+370)
Division Winner: Houston Astros
The Astros have clawed back from being as many as 10 games back in the AL West on June 18th, to now holding a 4-game lead over the Seattle Mariners as of August 19th. The Astros will not give up this lead they’ve worked so hard to build en route to their 7th AL-West title in 8 years.
Impact Series
- 9/23-9/25: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
NL East
Teams in Contention: Philadelphia Phillies (73-51), Atlanta Braves (66-58, 7 GB) & New York Mets (64-60, 9 GB)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-1600)
- Atlanta Braves (+1000)
- New York Mets (+12000)
Division Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
With the Atlanta Braves plagued by injuries yet again and the Mets being the Mets, the Phillies have stood atop and controlled the NL East race all season. Don’t expect this to change in September. Despite two series left against each team, the Phillies will comfortably win the NL East.
Impact Series
- 8/20-8/22: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
- 8/29-8/31: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
- 9/13-9/15: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
- 9/19-9/22: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
- 9/24-9/26: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
NL Central
Teams in Contention: Milwaukee Brewers (72-52, 11-game division lead)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-20000)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+8500)
- Chicago Cubs (+9000)
Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Among current division leaders, the Brewers have the largest lead between them and the 2nd place team (11 games). However, they have the smallest lead between a first place team and a last place team among all division leaders (13.5 game lead over Pittsburgh).
The Brewers, similar to the Phillies, will encounter little resistance in September en route to another NL Central title. They will also be the only team from their division to make the playoffs.
Impact Series
- 8/20-8/22: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
- 8/30-9/1: Miwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
- 9/2-9/4: St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
NL West
Teams in Contention: Los Angeles Dodgers (73-52), San Diego Padres (70-55, 3 GB) & Arizona Diamondbacks (69-56, 4 GB)
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-550)
- San Diego Padres (+550)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+1200)
Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
The NL West race, thanks to recent resurgences from the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, will be very interesting over the last month of the regular season. The Dodgers current 3-game division lead is a lot smaller than where it was back in June (10+ games). However, with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on one team, it’s hard to bet against them.
Impact Series
- 8/30-9/2: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- 9/24-9/26: San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- 9/27-9/29: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Non-Division Impact Series
Although there are still many interdivision series that will heavily impact who will win each division, there are also plenty of cross-division, and cross-league, series that can have a huge impact come October.
Let’s look at 10 non-division series that could have a huge impact on divisional winners and wild card implications:
- Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees (8/20-8/22)
- New York Mets @ San Diego Padres (8/22-8/25)
- Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers (8/27-8/29)
- Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers (9/6-9/8)
- Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (9/6-9/8)
- Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (9/16-9/18)
- Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (9/16-9/18)
- New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners (9/17-9/19)
- Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox (9/20-9/22)
- Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves (9/27-9/29)
Predicting the Playoff Seeding
Finally, given we’ve looked at who we think we will each division, let’s dive into who will be the top seeds and who will secure the (3) wild card spots in each league for the 2024 MLB Playoffs.
American League (w/ World Series odds courtesy of FanDuel)
- #1 Seed: Baltimore Orioles (+750)
- #2 Seed: Minnesota Twins (+1500)
- #3 Seed: Houston Astros (+1000)
- #4 Seed: Cleveland Guardians (+1600)
- #5 Seed: New York Yankees (+550, AL favorite)
- #6 Seed: Kansas City Royals (+3600)
National League (w/ World Series odds courtesy of FanDuel)
- #1 Seed: Philadelphia Phillies (+480)
- #2 Seed: Milwaukee Brewers (+2200)
- #3 Seed: Los Angeles Dodgers (+350, overall favorite)
- #4 Seed: Arizona Diamondbacks (+2000)
- #5 Seed: San Diego Padres (+2000)
- #6 Seed: Atlanta Braves (+1600)
