In the 2024 College Football season, even the most daring, bold, and controversial prediction from the average Joe could come true.
A 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) with five automatic bids up for grabs will ensure 2024 is the most exciting season in recent memory.
How many teams will make their CFP debut in 2024 after Washington and Texas did just last year?
Will a surprise superstar emerge and win the Heisman Trophy like LSU’s Jayden Daniels did in 2023?
Who will thrive and who will struggle?
These 10 bold predictions that follow will shed some light on the answers to those questions in 2024. Feel free to bookmark this article to come back and yell at me in December.
My College Football preview gives you everything you need to know going into 2024:
The Behemoth: Ultimate Guide to College Football 2024
1. Resume will matter more than record
Picking the inaugural 12-team field will be challenging for the CFP committee. The unprecedented shake-up from conference realignment will muddy the water, especially when you consider that each Power 4 conference has 16 or more teams going into 2024. Powerhouse programs could find themselves sitting outside the Top-5 spots of their conference standings because of the sheer number of competitive fellow conference members.
Now, with no divisions in the Power 4 conferences, teams will be at the mercy of their schedules. A Power 4 team with a favorable schedule could find themselves in the playoff conversation. A powerhouse program could find themselves tripped up by a more demanding schedule. However, the Playoff Committee has stated that “selecting the best teams” is of utmost importance. A team’s overall resume and body-of-work will have just as big of an impact as overall record.
Uncertainty surrounds the Big 12. The power struggle in 2024 will resemble a backyard brawl: the top teams when the dust settles will most likely finish 10-2 or 9-3. The same goes for the ACC: the 2024 variations of Clemson, Florida State, and Miami (FL) are relatively unproven. There is also a considerable lack of depth rounding out the bottom of the conference.
The stage is set for the at-large playoff field to include Notre Dame and multiple SEC and Big Ten teams with 2 or 3 losses. The SEC and Big Ten are no doubt College Football’s premier conferences, and the CFP committee will reward its members for surviving the gauntlet.
2. The SEC cannibalizes itself
The SEC is College Football’s most decorated and entertaining conference in the modern era. It features elite programs with colorful coaches and blue-chip talent all over the field. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma will only further this notoriety.
But in 2024, the SEC will have an “any given Sunday” or “anything can happen” feel. Georgia play one of the toughest schedules in the country and could have multiple losses on their resume come December. Texas will return quarterback Quinn Ewers but still have a lot of unknowns. Ole Miss has failed to fully put together a championship contending team to this point. Alabama and LSU are perceived to be reloading at key positions. Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas A&M are sleepers that all can steal a game from the top dogs. And of course, there will be a trap game on each team’s schedule.
Do not be surprised if the SEC standings look very different than years past come December. No team will come out completely unscathed from SEC play in 2024.
3. The Big Ten has the most teams in the CFP
The Big Ten is loaded thanks to the additions of Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington. Oregon especially has enough talent on both sides of the ball to make noise right off the bat. Add them to the mix with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa, and you have five powerhouses capable of earning the Big Ten’s automatic bid to the CFP.
Not only do you have five legitimate championship contenders in the Big Ten, but plenty of potential sleepers could emerge. You can never write off Wisconsin. Rutgers and Nebraska have favorable schedules. Word from Washington is that they may not skip a beat after making it to the National Championship last year. USC has the talent and coaching staff to prove that the 2023 season was just an outlier.
The Big Ten may prove to be the deepest conference in terms of talent in 2024. This will bode well for them come Selection Sunday on December 8th.
4. Miami (FL) goes undefeated and wins the ACC
Hurricanes fans have not seen an elite Miami team since 2003 when they were still a part of the Big East. That changes in 2024. The 2024 Hurricanes have a stacked roster entering head coach Mario Cristobal’s 3rd year at the helm. They secured commitments from former Washington State star QB Cam Ward and former Oregon State star RB Damien Martinez via the transfer portal. Ward and Martinez will complement an elite wide receiver room highlighted by Xavier Restrepo. The Canes also have top talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Combine this loaded roster with a favorable schedule and Miami has a recipe for success. Take care of business in a hostile Week 1 environment at Florida, and the Hurricanes only have one Top 25 matchup on their schedule: a home game versus #10 Florida State. Here are the betting odds associated with this bold prediction according to FanDuel:
- Over 9.5 Wins +124
- Miami to finish the regular season undefeated +840
- To win ACC Championship +380
- To make the CFB Playoff +210
5. Arizona wins the Big 12
Arizona’s 10-win 2023 season went under the radar to College Football’s national audience. Many also may be unaware that the Wildcats were just a few plays going their way away from finishing their season with 3 more wins. In 2024, Arizona returns almost the exact same team and 66% of their 2023 production.
New head coach Brent Brennan had modest success at San Jose State but he’ll have a decorated roster at his disposal in 2024. The Wildcats have stars at many key positions. Quarterback? Check, Noah Fifita could find himself in the Heisman conversation come December. Who’s he throwing to? A potential 1st round pick in Tetairoa McMillan. Who’s blocking for Fifita? Jonah Savaiinaea and company will be one of the Big 12’s best o-lines. Their defense must be bad, right? Nope, they have a lockdown cornerback in Tacario Davis and brilliant linebackers in Jacob Manu and Justin Flowe.
Arizona has the star power, experience, and depth to run the table in the Big 12. Here are the betting odds associated with tailing the Wildcats:
- Over 7.5 Wins -138
- To win Big 12 Championship +1100
- To make the CFB Playoff +1100
- Noah Fifita to win the Heisman Trophy +4000
6. Rutgers and Kansas both win 10 games
Both Kansas and Rutgers will be teams you won’t want to face in 2024. Both return many key contributors from last year’s teams and feature very favorable schedules in 2024.
Last year, Kansas was able to put together their first winning season since 2008. The Jayhawks were able to win 9 games even with star quarterback Jalon Daniels nursing a back injury throughout 2023. They will feature a high-octane offense led by Daniels, star running back Devin Neal, and a talented wide receiver corps. The health of Daniels and a battle-tested defense should allow the Jayhawks to make the most of a relatively easy schedule in 2024.
Similarly, Rutgers had their most successful Big Ten season since 2014. In 2024, they will field a senior-heavy roster that plays a gritty style of football. Star running back Kyle Monangai will headline their ground-and-pound run attack and 10 seniors will lead an aggressive style of defense. The Scarlet Knights also will avoid playing the top-5 Big Ten teams: Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa. Getting above average quarterback play and mitigating the loss of star linebacker Mohamed Toure to injury will be key in 2024.
Here are Rutgers and Kansas’s win total odds according to FanDuel:
- Rutgers Over 6.5 Wins -100
- Kansas Over 8.5 Wins +138
- Jalon Daniels to win the Heisman Trophy +3000
7. USC and Oklahoma struggle in new places
USC’s first Big Ten season and Oklahoma’s first SEC season will not be ones to remember. Head coach Lincoln Riley’s USC struggled against top competition last year even with a reigning Heisman trophy winning quarterback in Caleb Williams. Beating Texas was a huge high for head coach Brett Venables and Oklahoma in 2023, but they lost to their two other ranked opponents in addition to Kansas.
2024 for USC and Oklahoma will prove to be a season of finding out their place in their new conference homes. Unless USC quarterback Miller Moss plays himself into Heisman contention, their porous defense will put the Trojans into holes against the likes of LSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame. Oklahoma will be a fun team to watch on both sides of the ball (especially defense), but their offensive line could derail their season. Premier programs like Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU will take advantage of the Sooners’ weaknesses.
Lincoln Riley and Brett Venables could find their seats warming after 2024. Their fanbases are too used to winning to be patient.
8. James Franklin or Ryan Day will be fired
Perceived expectations are a huge factor into a College Football head coach’s job security. Ohio State and Penn State’s fanbases are two of the more impatient in all of College Football. That could sow either Ohio State head coach Ryan Day or Penn State head coach James Franklin’s demise after the 2024 season.
Ohio State, led by Ryan Day, has underachieved when you consider that Ohio State’s year over year goals include beating your rivals (Michigan and Penn State) and winning championships. The Buckeyes have lost three straight games to their archrival Michigan. They missed the College Football Playoff last year and have not been to a National Championship game since 2020. With the amount of talent that Ohio State fields every year, expectations other programs consider lofty are expected at Ohio State. A fourth straight loss to a reloading Michigan or an early exit from the CFP could send Ryan Day packing. Both would almost certainly seal the deal.
James Franklin has a similar problem as it relates to Penn State’s expectations year over year. Penn State has not appeared in a National Championship since 1986. They also have yet to appear in a College Football Playoff since Franklin was hired prior to the 2014 season. Under the 12-team CFP format, missing out will not be tolerated at Penn State. Penn State is also expected to compete with other elite programs. Under Franklin, they are:
- 3-17 against Top-10 opponents
- 12-26 against Top 25 opponents
- 4-16 against rivals Ohio State and Michigan
Considering Michigan’s uncertain future with the departure of Jim Harbaugh, failure by either Ryan Day’s Ohio State and James Franklin’s Penn State could see each administration evaluate all options.
9. Quinn Ewers gets benched
Texas’ Quinn Ewers has all the traits that NFL scouts salivate over in a quarterback prospect. He can effortlessly flick the football from any arm angle or base. He is also capable of fitting the football into tight windows or uncorking 70-yard bombs. Ewers’ natural talent enabled him to throw 3400 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2023 and lead the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff.
But Ewers has his share of flaws. He can get caught between decisions or locked in too long on one target, no doubt because of the confidence he has in his arm. He leaves a fair amount on the field in terms of accuracy, struggling with adding necessary touch on his throws. In 2023, Ewers also was throwing to two NFL wide receivers and an NFL tight end, while having an NFL running back behind him to relieve some pressure.
In 2024, injuries have thinned Texas’s running back options. Whether the pieces at wide receiver gel with Ewers remains to be seen. With a somewhat unproven roster, the Longhorns will need elite quarterback play and seamless decision-making from Ewers if they’re going to make the College Football Playoff this year. If quarterback is an area where they are lacking, head coach Steve Sarkisian will not hesitate to start Arch Manning.
10. Jalen Milroe will win the Heisman, become a 1st round pick
The quarterback situation at Alabama looks a lot different from this time last year. Jalen Milroe had not locked down the starting quarterback spot, even through three games in 2023. After that, Milroe left no doubt. He threw for 23 touchdown passes and 2700 yards plus he ran for another 12 touchdowns. He had magical moments and left it all out on the field versus Georgia in the SEC Championship and against Michigan in the CFP semifinal.
Going into 2024, Jalen Milroe will be playing with house money. He’ll be protected by one of the best offensive lines in the country. New Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer should be able to replicate the impact he had on Michael Penix Jr. at Washington with Milroe. DeBoer’s scheme should also allow Alabama’s young receiving corps to thrive.
Milroe is a gifted athlete and has elite arm talent. DeBoer’s tutelage should enable him to polish the negatives in his mechanics that plague his game. If Milroe can do that, a Heisman Trophy and becoming a 1st round draft pick are well within his reach.
- Jalen Milroe to win the Heisman Trophy +1400
